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Carrier Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat on HVAC Demand, Tariff Refunds

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Key Takeaways

  • Carrier's Q3 adjusted EPS rose 30% to 87 cents, while sales grew 12% to $6.26 billion.
  • Commercial HVAC orders surged 60%, data-center orders jumped 300%, and backlog topped $8.5 billion.
  • Carrier raised 2026 sales guidance to $23.8-$24 billion, while a $3.1 billion goodwill charge drove a loss.

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR - Free Report) reported exceptional third-quarter 2026 financial results, with adjusted earnings and net sales surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and growing year over year.

Strong commercial HVAC demand and recovering residential markets supported 15% organic sales growth. Record backlog topped $8.5 billion, up approximately 60% from a year earlier, while tariff-related refunds also aided profitability.

However, CARR stock plunged 7.2% during today’s pre-market trading session, after the earnings announcement.

Carrier’s Q3 Earnings & Sales Trends

The company posted third-quarter adjusted earnings of 87 cents per share, up 30% year over year and 7.4% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 81 cents.

Net sales of $6.26 billion also topped the consensus mark of $6.08 billion by 3.1% and grew year over year by 12%.

Carrier Global Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Carrier Global Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Carrier Global Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Carrier Global Corporation Quote

CARR's Commercial Orders Signal Sustained Demand

Organic orders increased approximately 35%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit or better growth. Global commercial HVAC orders rose about 60%, while data-center orders surged roughly 300%. Non-data-center commercial orders grew 20%, while aftermarket sales rose 9%, pointing to demand beyond large data-center projects.

Data-center sales were about 2.5 times year-ago levels and remain on track for approximately $2 billion in 2026. Year-to-date data-center orders exceeded $3 billion, up roughly 350%. Carrier also signed multibillion-dollar long-term agreements with minimum volume commitments that are not included in backlog.

Carrier's Americas Sales and Margins Accelerate

Climate Solutions Americas sales climbed 24% to $3,354 million from $2,711 million, with organic growth of 25%. Residential sales increased more than 30%, while commercial sales, excluding NORESCO, advanced more than 25%. Orders in the region rose about 60%.

Segment operating profit grew 40% to $745 million. Operating margin expanded 250 basis points to 22.2% from 19.7%. Organic growth and IEEPA-related refunds supported profitability, partially offset by rising input costs and tariffs.

CARR's Europe Unit Benefits From Heat-Pump Demand

Climate Solutions Europe sales increased 3% to $1,335 million from $1,290 million. Organic sales rose 12%, driven by low-teens growth in residential and light commercial activity. Heat-pump and air-conditioning sales each advanced approximately 35%, while commercial sales grew in the high-single digits.

Divestitures reduced reported growth by seven percentage points and currency by two. Segment operating profit jumped 40% to $168 million, while margin widened 330 basis points to 12.6%. Results included a roughly 100-basis-point net benefit from correcting a prior-period item, offset by higher inventory-related reserves.

Carrier Faces Uneven Asia and Transportation Demand

Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa sales rose 2% to $848 million. Organic growth of 3% reflected a 10% commercial increase, partly offset by a mid-single-digit decline in residential and light commercial activity. Sales fell 4% in China but rose 9% elsewhere in the region.

Climate Solutions Transportation revenues declined 3% to $726 million, as truck and trailer weakness outweighed container growth. Asia segment operating profit increased 6% to $103 million, while Transportation profit rose 2% to $117 million. Their margins improved 50 and 70 basis points to 12.1% and 16.1%, respectively.

CARR's Profit Gains Offset by Goodwill Charge

Adjusted operating profit increased 33% to $1,091 million, and the margin expanded 260 basis points to 17.4%, helped by favorable volume and pricing. The company recorded approximately $130 million in IEEPA refunds, adding around 10 cents to adjusted earnings per share after noncontrolling-interest effects.

However, a $3.1 billion noncash goodwill impairment in the European business drove a GAAP operating loss of $2,273 million against a $539 million profit a year earlier. GAAP earnings from continuing operations swung to a loss of $3.16 per share from income of 47 cents. A lower share count supported adjusted earnings, although the adjusted effective tax rate increased to 23.5% from 17.2%.

Carrier's Cash Flow Supports Shareholder Returns

Operating cash flow reached $813 million compared with $341 million a year earlier. Capital expenditures increased to $139 million from $117 million, resulting in free cash flow of $674 million compared with $224 million in the prior-year quarter.

Carrier repurchased $399 million of stock and paid $198 million in dividends during the quarter. Cash and equivalents stood at $1,354 million at September-end compared with $1,555 million at year-end 2025. Net debt declined to $10,120 million from $10,278 million.

CARR Raises 2026 Sales View Despite Cost Headwinds

Carrier increased its 2026 sales outlook to $23.8-$24 billion from approximately $23 billion. It now expects organic growth of around 10%, up from a previous mid-to-high-single-digit forecast. Stronger expectations for the Americas residential, light commercial and commercial businesses underpinned the revision.

Adjusted operating profit guidance remains approximately $3.5 billion. Adjusted earnings are expected at $2.85-$2.90 per share compared with the prior target of roughly $2.90. Free cash flow and share repurchases are projected at about $2 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, as pricing and productivity help offset $550-$600 million in unexpected incremental input costs.

CARR Stock’s Zacks Rank & Recent Construction Releases

Carrier currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Masco Corporation (MAS - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.01 by 17.8%. The bottom line increased 22.7% from 97 cents a year ago. Net sales rose 2.6% year over year to $1.97 billion, beating the consensus mark of $1.93 billion by 1.8%.

Masco’s results benefited from pricing actions, cost-saving initiatives and lower year-over-year tariff costs, partially offset by higher commodity and employee-related expenses. Masco raised its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to $4.65-$4.75 per share from the previous range of $4.40-$4.60, citing strong operational performance year to date. Reported earnings are projected to be between $4.51 and $4.61 per share.

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX - Free Report) delivered impressive third-quarter 2026 results, with earnings and revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increasing sharply year over year. The quarterly performance reflected robust demand across technology-related projects, strong execution and continued expansion in construction activity. Backlog reached $17.81 billion, reinforcing management's confidence in sustained growth and profitability.

Comfort Systems' management maintained a positive outlook, supported by strong customer demand, an expanding project pipeline and consistent operating execution. During the third quarter, Comfort Systems acquired Boys Electrical Contractors in Florida and a Texas-based modular construction business, strengthening its presence across electrical services and customized building components. FIX expects to sustain organic growth, high profitability and solid cash generation through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

United Rentals, Inc. (URI - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted earnings per share and total revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increasing year over year. Strong rental demand and operating efficiencies supported the results. Fleet productivity, which combines rental rates, time utilization and mix, improved 6.5% year over year.

United Rentals raised its revenue outlook to $18-$18.2 billion from $17.5-$17.8 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is now projected at $8.3-$8.4 billion compared with $7.98-$8.13 billion previously. Operating cash flow is expected at $6.25-$6.85 billion, up from $5.85-$6.65 billion. Management cited customer confidence, backlogs and large-project momentum as support for the raised outlook.

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